UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.