The diplomatic language and imagery from Russian President Vladimir Putin's most recent visit to India hinted at a robust bilateral partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders took a car journey, echoing a familiar political gesture. In his address, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the India-Russia connection as a "guiding star", founded on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India over his 25-year rule and his 20th encounter with Modi after the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Chasm Between Symbolism and Reality
Nevertheless, a clear disconnect exists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil because of international tariffs and sanctions. The two countries concluded a series of memorandums of understanding in areas like mobility, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, anticipated revelations on significant military deals failed to come to pass. India has not concluded any substantial defence agreements with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation fueled by delays in deliveries of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own wartime requirements.
A Partnership Losing Geopolitical Influence
This all indicates that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the identical strategic weight it previously did. In the Cold War, India enjoyed special barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This unique relationship peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both nations have attempted to preserve a appearance of this special tie through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the same importance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the West.
Diversification and Inherent Contradictions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its crucial links with Moscow. Yet, as external pressure increases on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to diversify the partnership into other areas. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, equitable and sustainable". This involves improving market access for Indian products to rectify a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers multiple key strategic fields – from space and atomic energy to defence and food security.
Ideological Affinity and Seen Reliability
At an ideological level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, especially among senior cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing tensions between India and the US, where American officials have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.
This key difficulty, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The extensive joint statement released during Putin's visit contained no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the war have been minimal.
Navigating the Circle: India's Global Balancing Act
This dynamic highlights the underlying contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is poised to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, following a comparable agreement with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current talks will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of hostilities and the elimination of a major irritant in its relations with the Western bloc. However, should a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian alliance will undoubtedly persist in Western governments.
