Each time the wind gusts northwest from Belarus, Lithuania expects issues.
That is when large aerial objects are dispatched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.
Over the last two and a half months, this smuggling operation has compelled Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.
On a single instance, the national skies was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.
However, the government are adamant they are confronting something far more hostile than simple smugglers.
They state the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of unconventional conflict by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.
State of Alert
The Lithuanian administration has declared an state of emergency.
While balloons have been utilized by smugglers in the past, their numbers suddenly surged this October.
"Of course it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses criminal networks to impact bordering nations," a senior official stated.
The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.
Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's border region.
"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."
Nightly Patrols
Now, each evening, security forces deploy in the frontier area.
The balloons are most common during the night.
Teams set up temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.
Consequently, the government has offered a substantial reward to any firm that can devise how to intercept them.
Currently, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.
Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.
Strategic Motives
The frontier line is now defined by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.
This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as adversarial.
Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".
He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.
In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a deliberate crisis.
"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."
The belief is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting international restrictions.
"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.
The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.
Consequences for Travel
For now, travellers and airlines face disruptions.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.
Revenue losses for all affected businesses are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.
"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.
"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.
"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."
Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – creating division – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.
"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."
