Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.