Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
